EU forecasts for agricultural markets up to 2030
Poultry farming, the only growing livestock sector
The report on forecasts of agricultural markets, incomes and the environment for 2020-2030, presented in January 2021 by the European Commission, covers the EU in its current composition (EU-27), after Brexit, which took place on 31 January 2020. Presents the medium-term outlook based on the consistent macroeconomic assumptions considered most plausible at the time of analysis. The forecasts on the price of oil and the population were updated on October 16, 2020 and the forecasts on the exchange rate and GDP – according to the forecasts of the European Commission – on November 5, 2020.
It is the first forecasting exercise for the agri-food sectors after the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Commission indicates that, in general, the impact of the crisis on the food markets has remained limited thanks to the resistance of the food chain . It highlights the reinforcement of some previous trends, rather than a complete overhaul of the food system. For example, an increase in e-commerce food sales and increased demand for locally produced food and short supply chains.
The nutritional value, origin and health concerns are prominent among the drivers of consumer choice, along with the environment and climate change place. In this context, the sustainability aspects of EU agriculture and food production were reinforced in the political debates on the future of the Common Agricultural Policy and the achievement of the objectives of the European Green Deal.
Since negotiations to define the regulation of the CAP post-2020 are still to be concluded, the report does not take into account either the reform of the CAP or the specific objectives – and policy frameworks -. However, some market assumptions are made to reflect ongoing initiatives and publicized strategies in various sectors.
Growth in EU arable crop production is expected to be limited. Competition for land, along with the expansion of forest and pasture areas, will limit the land available for herbaceous crops. On the other hand, improved agricultural practices and continued research and development will support yield growth. Digitization will increasingly be at the center of productivity gains, better working conditions and high environmental standards.
In the animal sector, sustainability goals will likely be an integral part of production growth, with actions throughout the food chain. EU milk production could grow more slowly than in the past, with an increasing presence of unconventional production systems – for example, grass-based, non-GMO-fed, organic. However, the EU will remain the largest exporter of dairy products . With regard to meats, consumers may prefer more poultry meat, as it is perceived as healthier than pork and beef and easier to prepare.
En el sector lácteo y los cárnicosIn the dairy and meat sectors, the estimated balances for the coming years are not positive . In milk, and beef and procine, net reductions are expected in the herd, production and consumption. Poultry meat and eggs are the only ones that would grow from the livestock sectors.
The egg sector stands out among those of animal production with the best forecasts. Production, according to the Commission, would grow between 2020 and 2030 by + 7.3%; consumption by + 9% and the balance of foreign trade in eggs and egg products would improve by +38%